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Thanks for pulling this information together. Would you please comment further on the Florida/Texas results? Since they have not expanded Medicaid, their Medicaid-covered population before redetermination would have been less in reality than what it would have been had they expanded. Therefore, (I think) they would have had fewer re-determination disenrollments, and so I'm wondering if the increase in their ACA markets is driven by their large populations, or is your reference population-adjusted? Thanks!

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According to the Kaiser Family Foundation analysis published last September, Texas had 54% or fifth highest rate of disenrollment from Medicaid among all states. Florida was in the middle of the pack, but with a 38% disenrollment rate, it was still 7 percentage points higher than the national average (see https://www.kff.org/medicaid/issue-brief/an-examination-of-medicaid-renewal-outcomes-and-enrollment-changes-at-the-end-of-the-unwinding/). This isn't purely political. The states of Colorado, Massachusetts and New Jersey, for instance, recorded disenrollment rates higher than Florida (but lower than Texas). But if you look at the chart in the KFF analysis, Republican-run states dominated the top of the list (above the national average) while Democratic-run states generally fell below the national average.

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As always, an incisive and thoughtful analysis.

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